My 2021 British Touring Car Championship Predictions

The 2021 British Touring Car Championship season is upon us and is all set to be one of the closest seasons in history. So, in a season so hard to predict, here are my predictions on how the table will look come October.

It has been an off-season full of activity, with manufacturer, team and driver changes across the field.

Most notably was the late drama at BTC Racing. Michael Crees’ departure from the team was announced with little more than a week to go before the kick-off of the 2021 season. Crees had a strong media day and looked all set for a breakout season. Dan Cammish, another shock departure from pre-season, will take Crees’ place for Thurxton, but with a Porsche Carrera Cup UK season lined up his availability for a full campaign is uncertain.

The Cupra Leon makes its debut, replacing Team-HARD’s Volkswagen CC, while MB Motorsport switch to the Ford Focus as they join forces with Motorbase Performance. Excelr8 pair up with TradePriceCars.com, fielding a fleet of Hyundai i30Ns, as Ciceley Motorsport replaced their Mercedes A-Class with a pair of WSR prepared BMW 330i M Sport.

Speedworks have become Toyota Gazoo Racing UK, and will field a second Toyota Corolla. Meanwhile, Honda leave the series as a manufacturer entry, with Team Dynamics going it alone as an independent.

Gordon Shedden heads the list of returnees, as Daniel Rowbottom, Dan Lloyd, Aron Taylor-Smith, Glynn Geddie and Sam Smelt all re-enter the series. Jason Plato also returns from sabbatical as Power Maxed Racing retake their place as a two car entry.

However, there are some big names amongst those who exit the BTCC. Dan Cammish and Matt Neal exit Team Dynamics, replaced by the aforementioned Shedden and Rowbottom. Senna Proctor and Bobby Thompson also couldn’t secure a seat for 2021.

New faces on the grid are Jade Edwards, who joins BTC Racing, and Rick Parfitt Jr., who joins Excelr8 TradePriceCars.

Finally are driver changes, with Tom Ingram and Jack Butel joining Excelr8 TradePriceCars, Rory Butcher replaces Ingram with Toyota, Tom Chilton heads to Ciceley, Stephen Jelley joins Team BMW after Team Parker left the series and Carl Boardley makes Laser Tools a three car outfit after buying Team Parker’s TBL.

So with all of the driver changes and new machinery, 2021 is almost impossible to predict, but we’re going to give it a go anyway! Here is my prediction for the final standings of the 2021 British Touring Car Championship;

28. Nicolas Hamilton (#28, Team-HARD with iQuoto Online Trading)

Part of Team-HARD’s line-up in the new Cupra Leon, Nic continues to inspire regardless of finishing position as he races while suffering from cerebral palsy.

27. Andy Neate (#44, Racing with Wera & Photon Group)

Neate is back for a second season in the Motorbase Focus. Also racing despite horrendous injuries suffered in the 2008 Britcar 24h, Neate has struggled in the BTCC. His aim will be to keep his nose and his licence clean after a difficult 2020 season.

26. Glynn Geddie (#88, Team-HARD with Autobrite Direct)

More a victim of a competitive grid, Geddie is yet to show what he can do in the BTCC. It could be a breakout year in the Cupra Leon for the Scot.

25. Jack Butel (#96, Excelr8 TradePriceCars.com)

Butel had a poor debut season, scoring only two points in 27 rounds. However, competing in an outdated Mercedes A-Class and alongside the very capable Adam Morgan is a tough start. Butel will be looking to take full advantage of his new Hyundai machinery.

24. Sam Smelt (#23, Toyota Gazoo Racing UK)

Smelt returns to the BTCC, but in the familiar surroundings of Speedworks where he spent 2020 in the British GT Championship. He failed to score a point in his one and only season in the BTCC, where he drove the AmD Audi S3 in 2018. However, Smelt has a competitive Corolla to work with in 2021.

23. Sam Osborne (#4, Racing with Wera & Photon Group)

A difficult driver to judge, Osborne starts his third BTCC in a third different car. Now in a Ford Focus, he will look to build on some solid runs from 2020. However, due to the strength of the field, I see him finishing 24th in 2021.

22. Carl Boardley (#41, Laser Tools Racing)

Oval racing champion Boardley joins Laser Tools after they combined forces with Team-HARD for 2021. Now at the wheel of title winning equipment, Boardley will look to carry his rear-wheel drive experience from 2020 into 2021 with his Infiniti Q50.

21. Rick Parfitt Jr. (#62, Excelr8 TradePriceCars.com)

British GT champion Parfitt Jr. makes the move to BTCC in the Hyundai i30N. Parfitt has a strong pedigree from his GT days but the move to touring cars is a difficult one, especially against such a competitive field. The potential to pull up a few trees but I see him landing in the bottom 10.

20. Aron Taylor-Smith (#40, Team-HARD with HUB Financial Services)

I could be very wrong on this one. Taylor-Smith is a four time BTCC race winner, but he returns after three seasons away and to a brand new car which is why I place him here, he could be a dark horse however, having shown strong pace during his time in the BMR Volkswagen CCs in previous years.

19. Jade Edwards (#99, PHSC with BTC Racing)

My favourite driver in the series, with my favourite team, it pains me to put Jade this low. However, Edwards starts her full debut campaign in a new, although competitive, car. She showed promise in her outing with PMR last year but was harmed by some run ins with Mr. Neate, Jade will look to push forward and cement herself as a solid driver in 2021.

18. Ollie Jackson (#48, MB Motorsport accelerated by Blue Square)

Jackson had a strong 2020 in the Motorbase Focus. He remains with the Blue Oval but this time in Mark Blundell colours. 19th feels too low for Jackson, but given the strength of those above him, he lands here. Don’t be surprised to see the odd podium or even win from Jackson though.

17. Aiden Moffat (#16, Laser Tools Racing)

Moffat heads into a third season in the Infiniti Q50 and will be looking to improve on his best 2020 finish of 5th. With current champion Ash Sutton as team-mate, the young Scotsman has the toughest yardstick possible in-house as well as big competition from elsewhere in 2021.

16. Daniel Rowbottom (#32, Halfords Racing with Cataclean Team Dynamics)

A debutant in 2019 with Ciceley, Rowbottom only recorded four points finishes in the Mercedes before sitting out in 2020. Now in a competitive Dynamics Honda Civic, Rowbottom has a point to prove and big boots to fill in 2021. I think he’ll demonstrate some strong pace, however I see 16 drivers stronger in front of him.

15. Chris Smiley (#22, Ginsters Excelr8 TradePriceCars.com)

Smiley is a very solid driver who has recorded consistent points finished for three years now. After a good first year learning the Hyundai i30N, I could see the Northern Irishman recording the odd podium in 2021. However, once again he faces tough midfield competition and a strong new team-mate in Tom Ingram.

14. Stephen Jelley (#12, Team BMW)

Jelley is another solid midfield driver, but now in the front running 330i, he’ll want to push towards the front. While I’m not wanting to overly rely on pre-season pace, Jelley struggled a bit at Silverstone, and with those above him he’ll have a difficult time breaking into the top 10.

13. Daniel Lloyd (#123, Power Maxed Car Care Racing)

Proving himself as one of the world's top TCR drivers since his last BTCC stint, I have high hopes for Lloyd as he teams up with Jason Plato in the Vauxhall Astra. Would love to be wrong but I think 13th is Lloyd’s upper ceiling on his BTCC return.

12. Tom Oliphant (#15, Team BMW)

Oliphant made a great improvement in 2020 following a difficult first year with BMW in 2019. Oliphant begins a run of drivers who could finish anywhere in the top 12 in my opinion, certainly with top 10 easily in reach, but I still think there’s a good few drivers ahead of the former Ciceley man.

11. Tom Chilton (#3, Car Gods with Ciceley Motorsport)

It was a difficult call putting a Ciceley 330i ahead of a Team BMW one, however I feel Chilton is the stronger driver between himself and Oliphant. Chilton will have to learn his new rear wheel drive machine but he could be one to watch in 2021.

10. Jake Hill (#24, MB Motorsport accelerated by Blue Square)

Hill spent 2019 dragging an outdated Audi S3 to places it didn’t belong, and despite numerous mechanical issues following his move to a FK2 Civic he still had a brilliant season in 2020. Now in a strong, up-to-date Ford Focus, Hill could be an outside shot for the title as is the competitiveness of the season.

9. Rory Butcher (#6, Toyota Gazoo Racing UK)

Butcher has been a title contented for the past two years now, but in a new car and with a team stepping up to a two car team for 2021, Butcher and Toyota may have to get used to their new endeavor before looking at title battles.

8. Jack Goff (#31, Team-HARD with Autobrite Direct)

This is a risky shout. I believe Goff is one of the best in the championship, having managed to drive the Volkswagen CC to a win in 2019. The Cupra is an outstanding looking car and one I hope does well, and while it’s a bold prediction, I could see Goff making the top 10 if the Team-HARD can get on top of the new Leon quickly.

7. Adam Morgan (#33, Car Gods with Ciceley Motorsport)

It’s fair to say the Mercedes A-Class hasn’t been in its prime for a few years, but that hasn’t stopped Morgan being a mainstay towards the head of the field. Now in a tremendously fast, WSR prepped BMW 330i, the Scotsman could finally have the machine to fight for a title. I think Morgan is a certainty for a top 10 championship finish.

6. Tom Ingram (#80, Ginsters Excelr8 TradePriceCars.com)

Tingram is another difficult one to place. A title contender in the past four seasons, a change in team could knock the wind out of his sails, or push him on to that first title. The Hyundai showed pace last year with Senna Proctor and Smiley at the wheel, so if Ingram can get his setup nailed down early he could be right up there by the season finale at Brand Hatch.

5. Jason Plato (#11, Power Maxed Car Care Racing)

A true BTCC legend, Plato took a year out due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. He had a strong end to his 2019 season, and while he’s not getting any younger a year out could have revitalised him for another title push in the Vauxhall Astra. Putting Plato this high is another bold call, and maybe tinged with a bit of bias as he’s my all-time favourite, but a strong pre-season made my mind up.

4. Ash Sutton (#1, Laser Tools Racing)

Defending champion Sutton should put up a strong defence, however, I have a suspicion history could repeat itself. Sutton took his Subaru Levorg to the 2017 championship, before regulation changes hit the estate car hard the following year. Given years of rear-wheel drive dominance and Honda’s withdrawal as a manufacturer entry, I could see TOCA stripping back the performance of the Infiniti and BMW in an effort to draw the front-wheel drive cars closer to the title fight. It’s a foil hat level theory, however, given the strong showing of FWDs in prime RWD conditions at the Silverstone media day, I feel confident(ish) in my assumption.

3. Gordon Shedden (#52, Halfords with Cataclean Team Dynamics)

Flash is back, and I believe he’ll be back with a bang. The Civic FK8 is a proven title contender, and three-time champion Shedden could be the man to give the FK8 its first championship. Equally, it could be a difficult first year back as Shedden adjusts to the new car, but I’m confident he’ll be right up there come October.

2. Colin Turkington (#2, Team BMW)

Mr. Consistency, Turkington is one of the best at picking up points regardless of starting position or situation. Narrowly missing out on a fifth title in 2020, the Northern Irish BTCC legend has to be considered a title contender. I do have one driver above him for reasons stated in the Ash Sutton breakdown, but if RWD holds its performance advantage Turkington will be my favourite.

1. Josh Cook (#66, BTC Racing)

My pick for the 2021 title is Josh Cook, which is the boldest of bold shouts, however, I have my reasoning. In a year of upheaval, Cook is primed for his third season with BTC. He fought for the 2019 title and horrendous luck was all that stood between him and the title fight in 2020. Cook’s knowledge of the team and one of the most competitive cars on the grid should see him battle at the front. And if the FWDs are handed the advantage ahead of the new season, that only elevates Cook’s stock higher. He’s been with his team for longer than most of his rivals, he’s in one of the best cars and has proven title fighting pace in recent seasons, I think things stack in his favour more than most would assume. There is a proviso on this one though, if Thruxton ‘guest’ driver Dan Cammish gets the BTC seat full-time then he will take my top spot.

Team Champions- Team BMW

With a strong line-up and all three drivers predicted to finish in the top 15, BMW looked to be in the strongest position for me. The Cammish proviso applies here too as I could see Cook and Cammish both battling for the title and each securing a top five finish.

Manufacturer Champions- BMW

With two strong BMW runners in the factory WSR squad and Ciceley Motorsport, I predict BMW to be well out of reach from Toyota and Ford.

Independent Team Champion- Ciceley Motorsport

This was going to be BTC Racing until the announcement of Crees’ withdrawal. An ever changing driver line-up and heavy reliance on a rookie isn’t the ideal set up for any title push. So with a strong, experienced and stable driver line-up of two potential top 10 finishers, Ciceley Motorsport get my vote. However, much like my championship winner proviso, if Cammish spends 2021 with BTC full-time, I expect them to take the Indi crown.